Is Bitcoin’s countertrend rally still on track?


My preference was for five, because it makes my life as an EW analyst a lot easier, but the market doesn’t always give us what we prefer, so it wasn’t the right bet. Because, as I said in mid-February,

Yes BTC falls below yesterday’s low [$41581] from around current levels, there have only been three (red) waves since the January low, and black wave b can then easily drop back to $35,000 +/- 1,000 once more. From there, an extended C wave can target up to $65,000 +/- $1,000. This roadmap is shown in Figure 1 with the black dotted arrows.”

Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP number and technical indicators.

Wave-B (B is for Bounce) always on track.

Well, BTC already fell below the $41,581 level on February 17, and so we knew that BTC had broken through “Gate B,” so to speak. IMHO, this is a great example of the probabilistic nature of markets and how the EWP provides clear “if/then” scenarios using price-based thresholds. There were no real surprises because with this outage we knew $35,000 +/- $1,000 would be next. Law-and-behold, BTC bottomed out at $34,349 and is now back to the mid-low $40,000s. So everything went according to plan B, so to speak, which is something I crypto trading premium members can successfully apply to their trading and investment decisions.

So the bigger B wave bounce that I anticipated still seems to be on track because now we know B wave-a was three waves, B wave-b was three waves , then wave-c of B should be five waves. However, since Bitcoin has fallen to around $35,000, I will reduce my upside target to $60,500 +/- $1,000. This roadmap is shown in Figure 1 with the black and green dotted arrows.

At the end of the line : Two weeks ago, I focused on the more short-term question of “five small waves in place or not“, while my overall assessment from almost two months ago (see here), for a”multi-week countertrend rally to ideally hit $60 +/-$2.5,000“ remains the same. Although I favored five waves, the market did not care about my preference and only made three waves. No big deal, because thanks to the EWP, I knew that “below $41,581 would target $35,000+/-$1,000.” BTC broke below, hit a low of $34,349 and is now up to $45,000.

The cryptocurrency will need to hold $41,425 to allow for more upside, as a break below $40,000 from current levels can still provide fuel for a drop to $28,100-31,760 before a more meaningful rally does not trigger. Conversely, a break above $47,275 will essentially confirm the rally to ideally $60,500 +/- $1,000. So the Bulls aren’t entirely out of the woods, but they look as good as they come.


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